NFL AND NCAA Football
Wagering Tips
Emotion-
The most important betting edge to
know about in football wagering isn't statistics
or numbers. The most important edge is
emotion. Find the team that desires to win
more than their opponent and they'll cover a high
percentage of those events. This is true in
all sports. But it is even more significant
in a physical game like NCAA and NFL
Football Betting. Certain Coaches are
much better than others in getting their teams
ready for games by providing the impetus for
emotion. Such Coaches as John Holliday, Paul
Johnson, Bill Belichick and anyone named Harbaugh
among others have all shown their worth in this
area over the years.
Sandwich Games- Be careful of ‘sandwich'
games. That is the game for a team that's in
between two other more important games. The
NFL is split into different Divisions , with fewer
teams in each Division. Since then we have
both the AFC and NFC broken down into four
Divisions consisting of four teams each.
They are called the East, North, South and
West. So now Division games are of even
greater significance than in the past with fewer
teams in each Division. When it comes to
determining the Playoff picture, these games are
the most important to each competing team.
If Seattle for example, early in the season, plays
Arizona this week and San Francisco in two weeks,
you know they're going to be focused on those two
inter-Divisional games. But if the
in-between game is against say Detroit, a lesser
out of Division team, be careful! Seattle
will have most likely played a tough game the week
before, and have an important tough game the
following week. Starters may be pulled early
against Detroit, and those hurting from the
previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been
covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too
much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but
fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of
Seattle the following week against San Francisco
because the bettor got burnt
the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement- Sometimes line movement
means nothing, and sometimes it means
everything. When I wager (my favorite
recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or
move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of
movement, but slightly in agreement with me.
When a line moves more than one point, especially
in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This
can denote injuries or other late information such
as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams
are notorious
for giving out misleading disinformation
more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the
final score falls in between the original line and
the final line. This opens the door for
‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late
the other way on the same game. I know
several gamblers who make their living on this,
and i have been successful myself at it.
They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning
both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of
their total bet. They clean up if one play
pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so
many lined college games nowadays, big line
movement can be bet on. For two years in a
row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football
team that got the most line movement during the
week won every single game those years.
Every week! For games like these with fewer
wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5
points. Sometimes it can move even
more. Beware of betting against this line
movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges,
stay away from wagering against consistent and
massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great
Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop
by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
site for tons of FREE Wagering Information,
Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly,
FREE Winners!
Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
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